The 2025 drivers’ championship could be decided at this weekend’s Qatar Grand Prix.
But with three drivers still in the hunt there’s also a strong chance the title will go down to the final round at Abu Dhabi one week later.
Lando Norris heads into the penultimate round of the championship with the chance to get his hands on the crown. But McLaren will have been left reeling by their shock double disqualification three days ago.
With the title hanging in the balance, the focus will chiefly be on the front-runners this weekend.
Will tyre rule affect the title fight?
Drivers will be forced to spend no longer than 25 laps on any set of tyres in Losail following an announcement by Pirelli earlier this month. Officially, Pirelli says the decision was “deemed necessary following analysis of the tyres used in 2024.”
At every other round of the championship teams must decide for themselves how long to run each set of tyres. That responsibility has been taken away from them this weekend, in an unwelcome disruption to the competition.
It is not an unprecedented one, however: Pirelli did the same in 2023, though it enforced an even lower limit of 18 laps after problems came to light during the race weekend. That forced drivers to make three pit stops during the grand prix; this weekend they will only have to make two.
Arbitrarily limiting how far each car may go on a set of tyres will inevitably affect the competition. But will it favour one team or another, and could it tip the balance in the title fight?
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Earlier in the season McLaren clearly enjoyed superior tyre performance over long stints compared to their rivals. Does it therefore follow Pirelli’s decision will help Verstappen by diluting McLaren’s advantage? Not necessarily: Red Bull have clearly made progress in this area with their car since the summer break.
Pirelli’s decision surely came from a sincere desire to avoid any failures and the danger that would create. And, no doubt, a particularly keen wish to avoid the championship being swung by one of the contenders experiencing such a failure – just as Norris did at this race in 2021.
Following which he observed, quite reasonably: “They should make the tyres better.”
Will sprint format highlight McLaren’s floor problem?
Speaking of unwelcome disruptions, Qatar is also the sixth and final sprint event of the season. However Saturday’s sideshow mini-race will not decide the title, as it did in 2023 before a crowd of just 38,725 – an unimpressive figure by F1’s usual standards.
With clear doubts over the durability of its tyres, this is the worst possible weekend for F1 to confine itself to just a single hour of practice before the competitive action begins. Is this why F1 decided months ago not to hold another sprint race at Losail next year?
One team will particularly have cause to regret the choice of race weekend format: McLaren. They blamed the excessive plank wear which caused their double disqualification from the Las Vegas Grand Prix on the reduction in practice time due to rain and other disruptions last weekend.
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It cannot afford a repeat of last weekend’s humiliation, so the team may have to err on the conservative side when it comes to setting up its MCL39s. Its performance at the United States Grand Prix was compromised after both cars were eliminated on the first lap of the sprint race, denying it useful data to reach vital decisions on set-up parameters such as ride heights.
Were the problems McLaren encountered in Las Vegas a symptom of some other change to the underside of their cars – and will that manifest itself in this weekend’s performance? That remains to be seen – but could have profound implications for the championship fight.
Piastri’s fading chances
Verstappen’s remarkable journey back into contention for the drivers’ championship has put him level on points with the driver who looked a strong tip for the title just a few weeks ago: Oscar Piastri.
Piastri’s former 34-point lead has flipped into a 24-point deficit due to a combination of poor results and, lately, awful luck. The former occured notably over the weekends in Austin and Mexico where he couldn’t conjure up the pace to challenge Norris. Then he slipped up at the start of the weekend in Brazil, crashing out of the sprint race.
Fortune did not favour Piastri when he picked up a borderline-at-best penalty in the grand prix at Interlagos. But Las Vegas was a rotten weekend for him: Charles Leclerc wrecked his final run in Q3, then he was hit by Liam Lawson at the start – and finally disqualified due to McLaren’s plank wear problems.
Still, that disqualification meant he goes into this weekend’s race six points closer to Norris than he would have done. Perhaps his luck has changed already? Regardless, he cannot afford to fall much further behind. The same applies to Verstappen, of course, but unlike Piastri he’s been trending in the right direction.
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Time for Tsunoda to show up
Yuki Tsunoda’s frequent Q1 eliminations have limited his usefulness to Verstappen’s title cause on race day. He can play a role, however, as he showed in Mexico where he was close enough to the front to be able to delay Verstappen’s pursuers.
Losail has exactly the kind of layout where Tsunoda could play a similarly helpful role. Few overtaking opportunities exist outside of the long pit straight.
Tsunoda may have dropped out in Q1 at the last two rounds but his starting positions prior to that were more respectable: 10th in Mexico and sixth as recently as Baku. Moreover, Red Bull blamed a tyre pressure error for his early exit in Las Vegas.
He is potentially Verstappen’s most valuable ally in his title fight. But whether Tsunoda gets to play that role is something of a toss-up.
Can Hamilton find a happy ending?
Lewis Hamilton appeared to be following a trajectory of gradual improvement over his first season at Ferrari. Perhaps it felt slower than expected, but at mid-season he was knocking on the door of a podium finish.
But that progress has not continued this side of the summer break, in which time he’s only managed a single top-five finish in a grand prix.
There have been glimpses of potential. He qualified a strong third in Mexico and was hard-done by in the race. But in Brazil and Las Vegas he plainly couldn’t extract as much from his car as his team mate.
Is Qatar likely to yield a better result? Hamilton particularly struggled with rear instability under braking in the cool temperatures at Las Vegas, while Losail is a much hotter venue with much shorter braking zones. And he surely can’t endure a worse race than he did at this track 12 months ago – can he?
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2025 Qatar Grand Prix
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- How to watch the 2025 Qatar Grand Prix
- F1 limits drivers to just 25 laps per set of tyres for Qatar Grand Prix